Thiruvananthapuram: India is likely to face a weaker-than-usual monsoon this year as the El Nino phenomenon strengthens over the Pacific Ocean, raising concerns about rainfall and soaring temperatures.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño conditions are expected to intensify between June and August. This development could significantly impact India’s southwest monsoon, potentially leading to reduced rainfall and hotter weather across large parts of the country.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NOAA estimates a 62% chance of El Niño forming during the June–August period, with the probability increasing to nearly 80% in the months that follow.
El Niño, caused by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, has historically been linked to weaker monsoons in India. Since 1980, the phenomenon has occurred 14 times, and in 9 of those years, the country recorded below-average rainfall.
However, experts point out that El Niño does not always guarantee poor rainfall. A notable exception was in 1997, when India experienced a normal monsoon despite the presence of El Niño.
With the monsoon playing a crucial role in agriculture and water resources, the evolving climate pattern is being closely monitored.
